16 Jun 2008
Speaking ahead of the lecture, Dr Alex Belenky, a visiting scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Center of Engineering Systems Fundamentals and author of the book ‘How America Chooses Its Presidents’, said: "Under a certain composition of Congress to be sworn in January 2009, a tie in the 2008 Electoral College may result in a constitutional crisis in the form of an election stalemate, making the US Supreme Court intervention in the 2008 presidential election inevitable.
"Contrary to widely publicised beliefs of the Electoral College opponents, making the nationwide popular vote a decisive factor in determining the election outcome doesn't require the elimination of the Electoral College.
“Slightly modified election rules would let the country elect a US President with a mandate from both the nation and the individual states and would make all the states ‘battleground’ in election campaigns while keeping the Electoral College as a backup.
“These rules are likely to be supported by enough states to amend the Constitution, since all the states gain attention of the candidates while keeping all their Electoral College benefits."
Dr Belenky, who holds a PhD in systems analysis and applied mathematics, will tell an audience in The School of Mathematics that in Presidential elections held from 1948 to 2004, only 16.072% to 21.103% of all voting voters could have elected a President under the Electoral College system, and the modified election rules eliminate such election outcomes.
Moreover, under the modified rules, chances of winning the US Presidency by the popular vote loser are substantially smaller than under the Electoral College.
Dr Belenky’s lecture will address, in a simple manner, the known features of - and new findings about – the Electoral College and their possible impact on the 2008 election outcomes.
During his lecture, Dr Belenky will argue that inaccurate reporting by the media is responsible for large-scale confusion about the US electoral system.
He will also say that the mathematics of the Electoral College actually dictates campaign strategies depending on particular positions of the candidates in the race. While candidates rarely follow these strategies, ignoring them by one of the candidate may produce his or her defeat in the election.
Dr Belenky will also look at the myths surrounding this controversial election mechanism - many of which, he says, are “widely publicized and aired every four years as the Election Day nears.”
Dr Belenky said: “Since its creation in 1787, the Electoral College has remained the most mysterious mechanism for electing a President of a country.
“There is no consensus among mathematicians, systems scientists, and political scientists studying the Electoral College on whether it can satisfactorily serve the US in the 21st century, especially after two close elections in 2000 and in 2004.
“Discussions of the Electoral College in the media are mostly those on opinions about this unique election mechanism and are not based either on its established quantitative features or on its true merits and obvious deficiencies, leaving them unknown or unclear to an overwhelming majority of the American electorate.
“Numerous publications in the national and international media bear evidence that reporters often offer incomplete and sometimes incorrect information about the system of electing a President in the US.
Moreover, lack of understanding of both the origins and the quantitative features of Electoral College, especially the way it works in close elections, causes some reporters abroad even to question whether the existing rules of US presidential elections are democratic.”
Besides the Electoral College, Dr Belenky will discuss the rules used by the Democratic Party in choosing the nominee in the 2008 election campaign and will argue that applying the idea underlying the modification of election rules in presidential elections to the nomination process can make it more democratic by "putting the people first".
Dr Belenky will give a free public lecture in the Frank Adams Rooms, 1st Floor, Alan Turing Building, The University of Manchester, Upper Brook Street on Tuesday 17 June at 5pm.
For further information on the lecture please contact Dr Mike Tso in The School of Mathematics, Tel 0161 306 3219 or mike.tso@manchester.ac.uk.
Journalists are welcome to attend the lecture and interview Dr Belenky by arrangement.
For further information please contact Dr Belenky on abelenky@mit.edu or Dr Mike Tso in The School of Mathematics, Tel 0161 306 3219 / mike.tso@manchester.ac.uk.
Dr Alexander S. Belenky is the author of the books Extreme Outcomes of US Presidential Elections (2003), Winning the US Presidency: Rules of the Game and Playing by the Rules (2004) and How America Chooses Its Presidents (2007). He was an invited guest on radio and TV talk shows throughout the country in the course of the 2004 election campaign. A visiting scholar at the MIT Center of Engineering Systems Fundamentals, Belenky holds a Ph.D. in systems analysis and applied mathematics. His co-authored opinion pieces about voting systems have appeared in The Boston Herald, The Christian Science Monitor, and The New York Times, and his opinion pieces about the Electoral College have appeared in The Baltimore Sun, Telegram & Gazette, Rutland Herald, Milford Daily News and other newspapers. His public lecture "The Electoral College in U.S. Presidential Elections: The Logical Foundations, Mathematics, and Politics" at MIT is available on the Internet (on the MIT World).
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