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Population Impact Analysis: a framework for assessing the population impact of a risk or intervention
Arpana Verma, Perihan Torun, Elizabeth Harris, Richard Edwards, Isla Gemmell, Roger A. Harrison, Iain E. Buchan, Lisa Davies, Lesley Patterson, Richard F. Heller
Journal of Public Health. 2011;34(1):83-89.
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Abstract
ABSTRACTBackground To describe an organizing framework, Population Impact Analysis, for applying the findings of systematic reviews of public healthliterature to estimating the impact on a local population, with the aim of implementing evidence-based decision-making.Methods A framework using population impact measures to demonstrate how resource allocation decisions may be influenced by usingevidence-based medicine and local data. An example of influenza vaccination in the over 65s in Trafford to reduce hospital admissions forchronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is used.Results The number of COPD admissions due to non-vaccination of the over 65 in Trafford was 16.4 (95% confidence interval: 13.5; 19.5)and if vaccination rates were taken up to 90%, 11.5 (95% confidence interval: 9.3; 13.8) admissions could have been prevented. A total of705 (95% confidence interval: 611; 861) people would have to be vaccinated against influenza to prevent one hospital admission.Conclusions Population Impact Analysis can help the ‘implementation’ aspect of evidence for population health. It has been developed tosupport public health policy makers at both local and national/international levels in their role of commissioning services.