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- DOI: 10.1002/art.37987
- PMID: 23650083
- UKPMCID: 23650083
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MRI-based three-dimensional bone shape of the knee predicts onset of knee osteoarthritis: Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.
Neogi, Tuhina; Bowes, Michael; Niu, Jingbo; De Souza, Kevin; Vincent, Graham; Goggins, Joyce; Zhang, Yuqing; Felson, David T
Arthritis and rheumatism. 2013;65(8):2048-2058.
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Full-text held externally
- DOI: 10.1002/art.37987
- PMID: 23650083
- UKPMCID: 23650083
Abstract
Objective: To examine whether MRI-based 3D bone shape predicts the onset of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA). Methods: We conducted a case-control study within the Osteoarthritis Initiative by identifying knees that developed incident tibiofemoral radiographic knee OA (case knees) over follow-up, and matching them to two random control knees. Using knee MRI's, we used active appearance modeling of the femur, tibia and patella and linear discriminant analysis to identify vectors that best classified knees having OA vs. not. Vectors were scaled such that -1 and +1 represented the mean non-OA and mean OA shapes, respectively. We examined the relation of 3D bone shape to incident OA (new onset Kellgren and Lawrence (KL) grade ≥2) occurring 12 months later using conditional logistic regression. Results: 178 case knees (incident OA) were matched to 353 control knees. The whole joint (i.e., tibia, femur, and patella) 3D bone shape vector had the strongest magnitude of effect, with knees in the highest tertile having 3.0 times higher likelihood of developing incident radiographic knee OA 12 months later compared with those in the lowest tertile (95% CI 1.8-5.0, p<0.0001). The associations were even stronger among knees that showed completely normal radiographs before incidence (KL grade 0) (OR 12.5, 95% CI 4.0-39.3). Bone shape at baseline, often several years before incidence, predicted later OA. Conclusions: MRI-based 3D bone shape predicted the later onset of radiographic OA. Further study is warranted to determine whether such methods can detect treatment effects in trials and provide pathophysiologic insight into OA development. © 2013 by the American College of Rheumatology.