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Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends

Anderson, Kevin L; Bows, Alice

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society - A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2008;366(1882):3863-3882.

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Abstract

The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 20002100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550ppmv CO2e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650ppmv CO2e is improbable.

Bibliographic metadata

Content type:
Publication type:
Publication form:
Published date:
ISSN:
Publisher:
Volume:
366
Issue:
1882
Start page:
3863
End page:
3882
Total:
20
Pagination:
3863-3882
Digital Object Identifier:
10.1098/rsta.2008.0138
Related website(s):
  • Related website http://journals.royalsociety.org/content/a7877169j7163rh2/
Access state:
Active

Record metadata

Manchester eScholar ID:
uk-ac-man-scw:1e648
Created:
17th September, 2009, 21:51:24
Last modified:
9th February, 2015, 13:20:17

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