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Reliability Assessment of Ageing Distribution Cable for Replacement in Smart Distribution Systems

Buhari, Muhammad

[Thesis]. Manchester, UK: The University of Manchester; 2016.

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Abstract

Majority of electricity networks have growing number of ageing elements. Critical network components, such as ageing underground cables, are very expensive to install and disruptive to replace. On the other hand, global climate changes have made connection of new low carbon technologies (LCT) into the grids increasingly necessary. These factors are contributing to the increasing complexity of the planning and management of power systems. Numerous techniques published on this subject tend to ignore the impact of LCT integration and the anchoring ꞌSmartꞌ solutions on ageing network assets, such as underground cables and transformers. This thesis presents the development procedures of an ageing underground cable reliability model (IEC-Arrhenius-Weibull model) and cable ranking models for replacement based on system wide effects and thermal loss-of-life metrics. In addition, a new concept of LCT integration and distribution network management was proposed using two optimization models. The first optimizes connection of new wind sources by minimizing the connection cost and the cost of cable thermal loss-of-lives in the planning period. In the second stage, the network is optimally reconfigured in such a way to minimize thermal-loss-of-life of ageing cable. Both optimization models are formulated as mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) problems applicable to radially operated medium voltage networks. To quantify the reliability benefits of the proposed approach, Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation (SMCS) procedure was formulated. Some of the main features of the SMCS procedure are the IEC-Arrhenius-Weibull model for ageing cable, optimal network reconfiguration, wind generation modelling using ARMA models and real time thermal ratings. The final outputs are reliability metrics, cable ranking lists for replacement, savings due to ‘non-spend’ cable thermal lives, etc. These studies have proven to be important in formulating an effective strategy for extending the lives of network cables, managing overall network reliability and planning cables replacement in power distribution networks.