03
August
2015
|
12:16
Europe/London

Economic alternative for Scotland broke Labour’s dominance

  • Scottish referendum resulted in more Yes voters switching from Labour to the SNP
  • Yes voting among Labour voters driven largely by the Yes campaign’s offer of an economic alternative for Scotland.
scottishflag2.jpg

New research from the British Election Study reveals that last year’s Scottish referendum effectively finished off Labour’s hope of winning north of the border last May.

BES Co-Director Professor Ed Fieldhouse from The University of Manchester says the referendum resulted in more Yes voters switching from Labour to the SNP after the referendum.

However, the economy was still an important factor: Yes voting amongst Labour voters was driven largely by the Yes campaign’s offer of an economic alternative for Scotland.

Most of those voters, though, were only lost to the SNP in the final months before or immediately after the referendum.

The news adds only limited support to Labour leadership campaigners who say an anti-austerity message could win back Labour votes north of the border.

It is true that the anti-austerity message strikes home in Scotland. However, many Scottish voters think that their economic interests are more likely to be looked after in an Independent Scotland. So with even with the most ardent anti-austerity stance, the party still has a mountain to climb if it is ever to win back support from the SNP
Professor Ed Fieldhouse

Professor Fieldhouse analysed British Election Study internet panel data based on online interviews with over 5000 respondents.

Yes voters switched in large numbers to the SNP in the General Election regardless of what they thought of austerity. And deficit reduction was a relatively unimportant factor in switching from Labour to the SNP.

However, the most important reason behind the support for independence, he finds, was that voters believe they would be personally economically better off without Scottish ties to Britain, and that the Scottish economy would be stronger.

Professor Fieldhouse’s research confirms earlier analysis of British Election Data by BES Co-Director Professor Jane Green before the election that the referendum had a profound impact on the transfer of votes from the SNP to Labour.

A huge majority of Scottish Labour voters were ‘no’ voters whereas an equivalent majority of SNP voters voted ‘yes’.

Rather than a movement back to Labour in 2015, BES shows how Labour continues to lose support among Yes voters to the SNP.

Professor Fieldhouse said: “It is true that the anti-austerity message strikes home in Scotland. However, many Scottish voters think that their economic interests are more likely to be looked after in an Independent Scotland.

“So with even with the most ardent anti-austerity stance, the party still has a mountain to climb if it is ever to win back support from the SNP”

NOTES FOR EDITORS

The Economic and Social Council funded British Election Study is one of the world’s oldest studies of electoral behaviour. It is run by a consortium of the Universities of Manchester (Professor Ed Fieldhouse, Professor Jane Green and Professor Hermann Schmitt), Oxford (Professor Geoffrey Evans, Nuffield College) and Nottingham (Professor Cees van der Eijk).

A presentation by Professor Fieldhouse is available

For media enquiries contact:

Mike Addelman

Communications and Marketing Manager

British Election Study

University of Manchester

0161 306 6901

07717 881567

Visit www.britishelectionstudy.com

Follow us on Twitter @BESResearch

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