Building a unified response to wildfires

As climate change continues to increase the risk of wildfires in the UK, geographers, ecologists, firefighters, land managers and modellers have joined forces to develop the UK’s first landscape-and fuel-specific models of fire behaviour. Built from shared learning and knowledge across many fields of research and practitioner expertise, this interdisciplinary approach is now guiding training, enhancing wildfire preparedness and shaping new prediction tools that could soon support a national fire danger rating system.

How the impact happens 

Wildfires in the UK have been growing in frequency and intensity, but practitioners have lacked reliable, UK‑specific evidence to guide prevention and emergency decision-making. Existing tools were based on non‑UK landscapes, leaving firefighters and land managers without models that reflected local fuels, weather patterns or landscapes. 

Researchers identified this gap after hearing stories from people dealing with wildfires on the ground. Major wildfires in recent years across the UK led to a groundswell of collective action to improve prevention and build resilience. In response, the team convened regular practitioner meetings and workshops – with fire and rescue services, estate managers and agency partners – to surface research questions that reflected operational realities rather than academic assumptions. As Robert Stacey, Wildfire Team Leader and Project Officer at Northumberland Fire and Rescue Service, explains: “Wildfires don’t arrive neatly packaged as data problems – they unfold fast, across different fuels, terrain and weather, and decisions have to be made quickly and safely.” This perspective helped keep the research closely aligned with what practitioners said they needed. 

Geographers, ecologists, modellers, landowners and firefighters worked on the problem together. They tested their ideas, checked experimental findings against real‑world experience and adapted their approach as new insights emerged. As The University of Manchester’s Professor Gareth Clay explains: “Wildfire is too complex to be solved by a single discipline or institution, so we built the project around shared ownership. Practitioners were involved early to help shape the questions being asked and the decisions the research needed to support.” 

Different expectations around the pace of work initially created some tension. “I’m used to reacting immediately, while research quite rightly needs time to test and validate ideas,” Robert reflects, “What eased that tension was honesty on both sides.” Gareth agrees: “We slowed things down, invested time in learning from one another and gradually built a shared understanding that strengthened the science.” 

Real-world review and refinement 

Regular feedback loops with practitioners ensured the science stayed relevant, while partnerships with national bodies such as the Met Office helped balance urgency with careful testing and accurate data. Crucially, support from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) enabled a long‑term, collaborative programme of work, rather than short‑term project‑level fixes.  

This sustained commitment to co‑design and iteration allowed the conditions for research evidence to build over time and be translated into tools with real operational value. Fire and Rescue Service colleagues tested FireInSite – a web-based system that allows users to drop a pin on a map and receive predictions about likely fire spread, flame length and intensity based on fuel type, terrain and weather conditions – in training exercises and live contexts, feeding back what worked and what didn’t. “We kept talking,” says Robert, “comparing what models suggested with what we were seeing in real incidents, and feeding that experience back into development.” This iterative process strengthened both the tool and the partnership behind it. 

Moving forward 

With robust models now in place, emphasis has shifted from building evidence to embedding it into practice at scale – a transition that the team has always been working towards. Partners continue to validate and refine FireInSite, supporting its progression toward wider operational use by Fire and Rescue services and land managers. Researchers and practitioners remain closely connected. As Gareth notes: “It’s that trust, that dialogue and creating the space where people can do brilliant work – that’s what’s made the difference.” 

In parallel, discussions with organisations including the Met Office and government partners are exploring how the project’s models and datasets can contribute to a national roadmap toward a UK Fire Danger Rating System, linking near‑term forecasting with longer‑term climate resilience planning. New interdisciplinary directions will bring social science and communication expertise alongside technical forecasting, supporting future public‑facing systems.  

The team is also developing international collaborations where UK‑specific insights can offer mutual benefit for similar landscapes, such as in Ireland, Norway and eastern Canada.